MediumVulnerabilityActive

Help Net Security reports PHP2Shell exploitation in November forecast

Help Net Security reports in-the-wild exploitation of PHP2Shell PHP flaws; update the PHP runtime and restart the web server.

Published
Fixed in
iOS 18.7.11, iPadOS 18.7.11, .NET 8, 9, 10 and .NET 11 RC3 Brotli fixes; PHP fixed versions not confirmed
Exploitation
Yes, according to a Help Net Security column that reports in-the-wild exploitation of PHP2Shell, CVE-2026-96951 and CVE-2026-86950

Live scores

CVE-2026-109618
EPSS
1.000
very likely to be attacked soon
VEDAS
0.982
strong exploit evidence
On CISA KEV
Yes, since 2026-10-26
Detection rule
Nuclei · Suricata
EPSS (chance of attack)
100.1Added to CISA KEV 2026-10-26CVE-2026-109618 EPSS over time2026-102026-11-04
VEDAS (exploit evidence)
100.5Added to CISA KEV 2026-10-26CVE-2026-109618 VEDAS over time2026-102026-11-04

Thin horizontal line: the “likely exploited” threshold (EPSS 0.10, VEDAS 0.5). Shaded “no data” areas are periods when cve-scores did not publish. The vertical line is the day CISA added it to its exploited list.

VEDAS flagged this bug about 5 days before CISA confirmed attacks.

Live scores

CVE-2026-109619
EPSS
1.000
very likely to be attacked soon
VEDAS
0.985
strong exploit evidence
On CISA KEV
Yes, since 2026-10-26
Detection rule
Nuclei · Suricata
EPSS (chance of attack)
100.1Added to CISA KEV 2026-10-26CVE-2026-109619 EPSS over time2026-102026-11-04
VEDAS (exploit evidence)
100.5Added to CISA KEV 2026-10-26CVE-2026-109619 VEDAS over time2026-102026-11-04

Thin horizontal line: the “likely exploited” threshold (EPSS 0.10, VEDAS 0.5). Shaded “no data” areas are periods when cve-scores did not publish. The vertical line is the day CISA added it to its exploited list.

VEDAS flagged this bug about 2 days before CISA confirmed attacks.

Live scores

CVE-2026-96951
EPSS
0.098
some chance of attack soon
VEDAS
0.976
strong exploit evidence
On CISA KEV
Yes, since 2026-10-13
Detection rule
No public rule yet
EPSS (chance of attack)
100.1CVE-2026-96951 EPSS over time2026-102026-11-04
VEDAS (exploit evidence)
100.5CVE-2026-96951 VEDAS over time2026-102026-11-04

Thin horizontal line: the “likely exploited” threshold (EPSS 0.10, VEDAS 0.5). Shaded “no data” areas are periods when cve-scores did not publish.

Live scores

CVE-2026-10839
EPSS
0.004
low predicted chance of attack
VEDAS
0.052
little exploit evidence
On CISA KEV
Not listed
Detection rule
No public rule yet

Live scores

CVE-2026-111497
EPSS
0.826
very likely to be attacked soon
VEDAS
0.979
strong exploit evidence
On CISA KEV
Yes, since 2026-10-27
Detection rule
No public rule yet
EPSS (chance of attack)
100.1Added to CISA KEV 2026-10-27CVE-2026-111497 EPSS over time2026-102026-11-04
VEDAS (exploit evidence)
100.5Added to CISA KEV 2026-10-27CVE-2026-111497 VEDAS over time2026-102026-11-04

Thin horizontal line: the “likely exploited” threshold (EPSS 0.10, VEDAS 0.5). Shaded “no data” areas are periods when cve-scores did not publish. The vertical line is the day CISA added it to its exploited list.

VEDAS flagged this bug about 3 days before CISA confirmed attacks.

Live scores

CVE-2026-86950
EPSS
0.262
likely to be attacked soon
VEDAS
0.979
strong exploit evidence
On CISA KEV
Yes, since 2026-09-29
Detection rule
No public rule yet
EPSS (chance of attack)
100.1CVE-2026-86950 EPSS over time2026-102026-11-04
VEDAS (exploit evidence)
100.5CVE-2026-86950 VEDAS over time2026-102026-11-04

Thin horizontal line: the “likely exploited” threshold (EPSS 0.10, VEDAS 0.5). Shaded “no data” areas are periods when cve-scores did not publish.

What happened

A Patch Tuesday forecast column published by Help Net Security reports several items from October 2026 that it says still need attention. The column was written by Todd Schell, a senior product manager at Ivanti. These are the column’s statements. The PHP advisory and the vendor advisories it refers to were not among the sources reviewed here.

PHP2Shell. Help Net Security reports that researchers call CVE-2026-109618 and CVE-2026-109619 “PHP2Shell”. The column says PHP published a security advisory on October 21 listing the fixed PHP versions. It also says exploitation in the wild was detected several days before the patches were released and “is continuing to expand”. According to the column, exploitation gives an attacker access to whatever the PHP shell can see. The specific fixed version numbers are not confirmed in the source.

Microsoft, October. The column says Microsoft fixed 1,407 unique CVEs in October 2026. It reports that CVE-2026-96951, a Windows Shell security feature bypass affecting Windows 10, Windows 11 and Windows Server, was confirmed exploited. It also reports that CVE-2026-10839, a .NET Framework security bypass, was publicly disclosed.

Brotli emergency fix. According to the column, Microsoft released an out-of-band fix on October 25 for CVE-2026-111497. This flaw is also called Broccoli2Shell, Node2Shell or HTTP2Shell, and the column says it lies in the Brotli binaries or libraries that process Brotli-compressed data. The fixes cover .NET 8, 9 and 10 and Release Candidate 3 of .NET 11. The column says proof-of-concept code exists but there is no known exploitation in the wild.

Certificates. The column says Microsoft removed seven certificates from the Windows trust list on October 26 because their keys had been compromised: six eMudhra G3 roots and an AAA Certificate Services cross-sign.

Apple. Help Net Security reports that Apple shipped security updates for its supported operating systems on October 26. It also backported a fix to iOS 18.7.11 and iPadOS 18.7.11 for CVE-2026-86950, a CoreGraphics flaw that could lead to arbitrary code execution. The column quotes Apple as saying the issue “may have been exploited in an extremely sophisticated attack against specific targeted individuals”.

Obsolete software. The column cites an article about an abandoned 2014 application that was still running on 2.5 million Windows devices and 300,000 Macs. Some of the domains it contacted for updates were open for registration. The column says the problem was found and the software removed before anyone abused it.

Am I affected?

  • PHP: If you run PHP on any server, you may be affected by CVE-2026-109618 and CVE-2026-109619, according to the column. Which PHP versions are affected and which are fixed is not confirmed in the source.
  • Windows: Windows 10, Windows 11 and Windows Server systems without the October 2026 updates are exposed to CVE-2026-96951, per the column.
  • .NET: Applications on .NET 8, 9, 10 or .NET 11 RC3 that use the Brotli libraries need the October 25 fix, per the column.
  • iOS and iPadOS: Devices on older iOS or iPadOS versions should move to 18.7.11, per the column.

What to do now

  1. Patch PHP. Find the fixed PHP versions in PHP’s October 21 advisory or in your OS vendor’s packages. Then replace the PHP runtime and stop and restart the web server. Help Net Security notes that without a restart, the old code stays in memory.
  2. Check PHP hosts for compromise. The column reports exploitation before patches were available, so review PHP hosts for signs of compromise. Assess what data and systems the PHP process could reach.
  3. Apply October fixes now. Install the October 2026 Microsoft updates and the October 25 .NET Brotli fix. The column says all of these fixes will also be included in the November Patch Tuesday cumulative release.
  4. Update Apple devices. Update Apple devices, including older iPhones and iPads, to 18.7.11 or later.
  5. Remove unused software. Inventory and remove end-of-life and abandoned software, especially software with network connectivity.

Sources